This post is geared towards providing some math on what % you need to make your 2s, esp post 2s, vs chucking 3s. BTW, play however you want, I am just showing the point opportunity for every attempt of a 3.
We all know a 3 is worth 3 points, a 2 is worth 2. No shit right! But there is an expected point result each time either is attempted.
Simple ex, you typically shoot 2s at a 50% clip. That means every attempt of a 2 has an expected outcome of 1 point.
Now let’s bring in 3s. Based on my experience in supermax the top players will hit 50% of their 3s. But we will be conservative and model 40%.
For every 3 shot, at 40%, the expected points scored is 1.2.
But we all know the off rebounding on 3s is skewed to the offense. So if we miss 60% of our 3s, there is still an oppty for the rebound, Kick out for another 3. I will be conservative and model 1 out of 3 are grabbed by offense.
3p% = 40%
3p rebound % = 33.3%
Each three shot =1.2
Rebound/Kick out per shot= .6 x .33 = .2
Each followup 3 = .2 × 1.2 = .24
So the math on a single 3 shot, then a rebound, with another 3 shot is
1.2 + .24 = 1.44
For a 2 to be worth it you must hit 1.44/2 = 72%.
The problem is these rebounds happen multiple times, in my experience. So in a 2 off rebound situation, the total becomes 1.2 +.24 +.24= 1.68. Meaning you would have to hit 1.68/2 = 84% of 2pt shots to break even.
So in normal play you could argue every 3 attempted is worth between 1.44 and 1.68 points, to match the efficiency your 2s must be 72%-84%.
Final math with adjusted estimates. Top players shoot 50%, and based on the stats, may be nabbing 50% of the rebs.
3p%= 50%
3p reb % = 50%
Each 3 = 1.5
Reb/Kick out = .5 x .5 = .25
Each followup = .25 x 1.5 = .375
Single 3 attempted, with 1 reb Kick out modeled = 1.5 + .375 = 1.875.
With no rebounds calculated in for a 50% 3p shooter, a 2p shooter must hit 75%. In a single rebound Kick out added in a 2p shooter must hit 1.875/2 = 94%. 94% !!!
Now there can be rebounds on 2s as well I just don’t seem to experience these as often, whereas it often does feel like there is an off rebound off 3s 30-50% of the time.
Long story short, if you are facing a top player who fires a lot of 3s, and you live and die in the post, just know that you need to hit 75% minimum to keep up, depending on how the opp is rebounding, up to 90+%.
3s are way too OP.
It’s nice to be on a forum with grownups. That warrants putting in some effort to help educate/explain some things we see in supermax.