Post Shots vs 3s

This post is geared towards providing some math on what % you need to make your 2s, esp post 2s, vs chucking 3s. BTW, play however you want, I am just showing the point opportunity for every attempt of a 3.

We all know a 3 is worth 3 points, a 2 is worth 2. No shit right! But there is an expected point result each time either is attempted.

Simple ex, you typically shoot 2s at a 50% clip. That means every attempt of a 2 has an expected outcome of 1 point.

Now let’s bring in 3s. Based on my experience in supermax the top players will hit 50% of their 3s. But we will be conservative and model 40%.
For every 3 shot, at 40%, the expected points scored is 1.2.

But we all know the off rebounding on 3s is skewed to the offense. So if we miss 60% of our 3s, there is still an oppty for the rebound, Kick out for another 3. I will be conservative and model 1 out of 3 are grabbed by offense.

3p% = 40%
3p rebound % = 33.3%
Each three shot =1.2
Rebound/Kick out per shot= .6 x .33 = .2
Each followup 3 = .2 × 1.2 = .24

So the math on a single 3 shot, then a rebound, with another 3 shot is
1.2 + .24 = 1.44
For a 2 to be worth it you must hit 1.44/2 = 72%.
The problem is these rebounds happen multiple times, in my experience. So in a 2 off rebound situation, the total becomes 1.2 +.24 +.24= 1.68. Meaning you would have to hit 1.68/2 = 84% of 2pt shots to break even.

So in normal play you could argue every 3 attempted is worth between 1.44 and 1.68 points, to match the efficiency your 2s must be 72%-84%.

Final math with adjusted estimates. Top players shoot 50%, and based on the stats, may be nabbing 50% of the rebs.

3p%= 50%
3p reb % = 50%
Each 3 = 1.5
Reb/Kick out = .5 x .5 = .25
Each followup = .25 x 1.5 = .375

Single 3 attempted, with 1 reb Kick out modeled = 1.5 + .375 = 1.875.

With no rebounds calculated in for a 50% 3p shooter, a 2p shooter must hit 75%. In a single rebound Kick out added in a 2p shooter must hit 1.875/2 = 94%. 94% !!!

Now there can be rebounds on 2s as well I just don’t seem to experience these as often, whereas it often does feel like there is an off rebound off 3s 30-50% of the time.

Long story short, if you are facing a top player who fires a lot of 3s, and you live and die in the post, just know that you need to hit 75% minimum to keep up, depending on how the opp is rebounding, up to 90+%.

3s are way too OP.


Difficulty should be superstar :sneezing_face:


Seems like I inspired you! Haha :smile:

:grin: It’s nice to be on a forum with grownups. That warrants putting in some effort to help educate/explain some things we see in supermax.

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Been wanting them to increase the difficulty of supermax

great post, yeah 3 pointers AND offensive rebounds off 3’s are way too OP. Upping the difficulty would help I think, but sadly we’ve been wanting that forever…maybe in 2K19

This post is actually great to explain why I think a traditional post scorer big has no place in modern basketball, be it 2K or real life.

Talking about real life NBA, Towns shot 42% from 3pt land this year, and Porzingis shot 39.5%. So your calculations are correct for real life too. A post scorer would need to convert at crazy amounts to be able to keep up with these modern big men.

Right, and this math you see above is an extremely simplified version of what the rockets have built their entire system around. 3s, layups, free throws and almost nothing else. The most inefficient shot is a long 2, the teams that “get it” shoot very few of these. The teams that don’t (twolves) shoot way too many.

The smart teams look at a long 2 attempt as just throwing away points. Either drive, or step back.