Pack Odds Sample Study

Has anyone ever done this before? It may not give us anything useful, but I’m curious. I happen to be a math teacher and this stuff interests me haha.

I would keep a spreadsheet to track this, starting with this past week with the NEXT drop. Anyone willing to share the following would be helpful:

  1. How many packs did you rip? (If it’s not an exact number, only share if you think you’re fairly accurate)
  2. How many OPALS did you pull?
  3. For any OPALS share:
    -VC or MT?
    -single pack or box?
    -guaranteed or standard?
    For this section, I do realize it’s not scientific, only anecdotal because I’m not sure what percentage of packs people open with VC or MT, single or box, etc.

I added mine to the speadsheet to start it out. I may be ripping more with MT for “research” purposes…



Its bad


I ripped 30ish packs bf I shelfed the game with MT.

Got all the PDs and Diamonds, and 3 Opals.

RJ, Edwards, and Wiseman were the Opals.


If we could somehow expose the true odds of pulling a Opal that would be amazing.

Every time I pull packs from now on I’ll post results in this thread. I encourage everyone else to do it as well.


Great, thanks!

What was the site, 2Klabs or something? I know they did massive pack openings last year (500) ish and the odds are fucking baaadddd

Edit: Yeah, here’s some data from last year.

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This is interesting. I assume it was much earlier in the cycle? So pink diamonds were the “opals” at the time?

Yeah, these were mid-cycle.

Crazy to think we have twice as many total opals in the game this year than last year already.

I ripped 20 non guaranteed packs with MT and got one opal which was James Wiseman

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Yeah, those were top tier cards at the time most likely.

0.1%-0.5% for the rare/best card in a pack sounds just about right smh

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2K officially released their packs odds because of European laws, a lot of people just don’t know they did.


<2% is nice and vague, lol. Especially considering those are the only cards people give a shit about anyways.

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Yah but no one cares about the 93+ at this point of the year I mean like the Pink Diamonds and Diamonds

It’s hard to determine where the cards that drop now would fall in that since everybody now is a 98+

Yah that’s true

Plus it really depends on the time of year. Pulling a 95 right now is nothing (I have way too many NEXT Diamonds and Takeover Robert Reids to count)

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At the risk of oversimplifying it, there’s a reason we open 15, 20, 30 packs and get nothing. The odds basically indicate you’d have to open 100 packs to get 1 top card. It’s insane business practice, and we’re fools for supporting it, frankly.


Truth. The odds def aren’t static either. It might just be confirmation bias, but I totally subscribe to the idea that things like playtime (both total and recent) as well as a ton of other factors can influence an individual user’s odds.

Couple it with each pack being an independent variable, and I’ve seen some people go on some crazy ass streaks, both bad and good.


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Oh and just in case 2K is “spying” on us here and they want it to seem like the odds are better…my username is dbub and I’m about to open a bunch of packs with MT. Give me a Lamelo Opal. Please! :pleading_face:

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