Before today the vault had opened for me more than half the time. Today, it hasn’t opened SIX times in a row.
Extra annoying because I’m in the stupid 40-50 win range where you get absolutely nothing for each win.
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Six times is not a real sample to go off of. Even if the odds are as high as 50%, it’s not crazy to have six misses in a row
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If something is 50% odds like flipping a coin, then 6 of one thing in a row has a 1.2% chance of happening. Which is pretty damn rare.
And the odds seemed higher than 50% this whole week.
I’ve won 10 times and had it open twice. Seems like it was bad since launch
Same here-
Mine openend like 70% of the time before, as of now it mustve been like 6-8 games without it opening.
Could be a fluke, could be by intention to reel you in in the beginning. Its too early to tell.
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It seems about the same to me. Somewhere between 30-40%. I am 100 games in without Winters, though. Seems like very low odds on that pull.
I got winters around game 45-50. Im in the 80s now and the vault does feel a little worse then it was the first several days of the game.
I had it open once to give me a single token. Last game I played of that lol
It’s not rare. If you flip the coin 100k times those events will happen. I’m guessing the 2k players played already millions of TT offline games.
I would say the vault opens at a rate of 40%
It hasn’t been nerfed. My odds have been crappy the whole time, but I’ve watched streamers open 4-5 times in a row since the beginning of 2k21. I’ve opened it maybe twice in 15 wins. What’s nerfed is the possibility of actually winning against the CPU. I’ve lost as many times as I’ve won probably. Last year I rarely lost in hundreds of games of TT Off. God forbid if I open too many times and win too many 1 token or 100 MT rewards from the vault. I said last year that there was no way I’d buy 2K21 this year, but the shooting changes made me curious enough to buy it. Big mistake. I should’ve known better that 2K would just find more ways to rip off the player base.
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What cards are using? As of late I loose maybe 1 or 2 in 10 games. Iverson just runs to the basket, sometimes with a pick but it really isn’t a problem winning.
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i am more annoyed that the animation takes like 5 seconds when you already can see thats its not opening
Vault opens often enough, but I’m over 200 wins and still haven’t gotten Winters and only hit on 5 tokens once.
2K20 all over again
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Odds for these things likely aren’t set in stone. More likely that it’s all tied up in algorithms. You had success opening? Great, now you’re expecting that and will keep trying until you get that success again because it happened before. It’s gambling 101, keeps the player engaged.
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It usually opens alot at the start and then the odds get worse the more wins you have.
The fact that the CPU difficulty is complete aids doesn’t help.
My odds aren’t bad but the rewards suck. I had to invest in diamond contracts so I can grind without it costing me much. Also, still haven’t gotten Winters. Probably won’t get him at this point lol.
The split second the opportunity pops up to open the vault, it’s ~2.7 sec. Count in your head, use a stopwatch, whatever; but it’s not random. I always count in my head so it’s not exact (especially the more I medicate as I play), but I’d say I’m successful about 70% of the time. My record so far this year is 7 in a row.
Myself and several others did this all last year, and it’s looking like it’s the same this year. Don’t get discouraged the first several tries. It took me a while, but I finally found a “count” that works for me.
The prizes still suck though. Best I’ve gotten was 5 tokens. 
Skywalker though is a goddamn animal.
What are you saying? Wait 2.7 s before pressing open the vault?